The impact of economic cycles on linguistic divergence and language extinction

The impact of economic cycles on linguistic divergence and language extinction

Dogadushkin D.M. (MGIMO, Moscow, Russia)
Sipola L.K. (MGIMO, Moscow, Russia; ISP RAS, Moscow, Russia)
Normanskaja Ju.V. (ISP RAS, Moscow, Russia; ILS RAS, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between economic factors and processes of linguistic divergence, drawing on historically attested cases of proto-language breakup. The theoretical framework draws on glottochronological methods developed by S.A. Starostin, as well as hypotheses concerning the influence of socioeconomic conditions on linguistic dynamics. The empirical base consists of data on Proto-North Chinese and Proto-Romance, as well as subsequent stages of fragmentation among the daughter Romance languages. The study employs proxy indicators of economic activity, including trade intensity (shipwreck frequency) and monetary characteristics (metal content of coins, presence or absence of regular minting, degree of economic monetization). It is shown that periods of linguistic breakup systematically correlate with phases of economic disintegration, manifested in declining trade activity, the collapse of monetary circulation, and a shift toward subsistence and barter economies. Conversely, periods of economic stability – such as the Pax Romana era and the 11th–13th centuries – are characterized by high trade intensity, stable monetary systems, and an absence of significant linguis-tic fragmentation. Particular attention is given to the finding that silver content in coinage is not a uni-versal indicator of economic crisis: even at high fineness, one may observe the abandonment of monetary circulation, a shift to foreign currency, or a declining role of coinage in the economy. The results suggest that the degree of economic integration is an important factor shaping the pace and character of linguistic divergence. The proposed approach may be used to refine the dating of language splits and to further model the interaction between economic and linguistic processes.

Keywords

economic cycles, economics, glottochronology, comparative-historical linguistics, language breakup.

Edition

Proceedings of the Institute for System Programming, vol. 38, issue 4, part 1, 2026, pp. 171-182

ISSN 2220-6426 (Online), ISSN 2079-8156 (Print).

DOI: 10.15514/ISPRAS-2026-38(4)-9

For citation

Dogadushkin D.M., Sipola L.K., Normanskaja Ju.V. The impact of economic cycles on linguistic divergence and language extinction. Proceedings of the Institute for System Programming, vol. 38, issue 4, part 1, 2026, pp. 171-182 DOI: 10.15514/ISPRAS-2026-38(4)-9.

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